Obamamania Or Bust

Barack Hussein Obama, if nominated, now has a chance of success in November. Supporters swooning and tearing up at his rallies is a phenomenon not seen in America since the sixties. This doesn't mean, however, that the Democrats are guaranteed the Presidency. As it has RECENTLY developed, this election is now ONLY a Democrat VICTORY WITH OBAMA.

First, the conservative opposition to John McCain is a major factor in the growing possibilty for a Democrat victory this November. Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh are right in depicting McCain as a chameleon. And, they have already done major damage to his candidacy that will lead many to third parties or on a proverbial fishing trip on election day.

From the right, however, it is Pat Buchanan who is in the position to deliver the knock out blow. There is no forgiving McCain on the Paleo-right. Despite the war, most of it grudgingly voted Republican in the close 2004 election, and, were paid back with a Supreme Court judge. However, McCain isn't trusted on the Supreme Court and he certainly is not trusted on Iraq (and Iran). Don't forget that Buchanan has opposed the Iraq war from the beginning. Buchanan takes McCain at his word when he says that we could be in Iraq for 100 years. Because of the war (and other issues such as "free" trade), Buchanan's magazine the "American Conservative", even flirted with the possibility of a Ralph Nader endorsement back in 2004. Now that Nader is once again considering a run for the presidency (if no anti-war candidate wins the Democratic nomination), he could be able to count much of the Buchanan anti-war right among his supporters.

Would the war be enough to transfer Paleo votes to Obama if he as the anti war canadidate wins the Democrat nomination and Nader doesn't run? Thinking about the war producing such an outcome is mind-boggling. He is the most liberal member of the Senate. The fact that he has gotten as close as he has to the presidency is, however, also mind boggling. Support from the Paleo right for him may come indirectly through the already mentioned election day fishing trips.

The next important ingrediant is the Clintons. Today, Hillary slipped behind in Texas polls. This leaves her Pennsylvannia, Ohio and the "super delegates" with which to pull out a victory. Pennsylvania is still very much in play. Despite the Osama Obama phemonenon that I referred to in Philly (January 4th post), the older voters from Philly's river wards and other older traditional Democrats in the coalfields from Shamokin to Scranton may not be enough to save her. Remember, vote rich Philly is three cities. In this case, the young and liberal mostly white Center City will unite with the black North and West to give Obama the edge in PA. What's Ohio going to do? It's similar to PA with Cleveland analogous to Philly. Ohio is no firewall for the Clintons either.

If they can't win with the voters, this only leaves them with the "super delegates". The Clintons have a lot of IOUs out there and many of the "super delegates" are recipients of the Clinton largess. Winning enough of them is still a very big question. However, WINNING the nomination WITH the "SUPERS" would be an absolutely WORTHLESS Phyrric victory. With Obama having made it so far, the sense of BETRAYAL that would overwhelm the black base of the Democrat party would sink any chance of victory in November.

To my Democrat friends, it's Obama or bust!